【內容梗概講述】019/2020年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)全球(qiu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)大于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)需(xu)(xu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)價格或承(cheng)壓下(xia)跌發表(biao)時間(jian)：2019/3/5根據美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)農業部展(zhan)望(wang)論(lun)壇的(de)(de)(de)初步預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測，2019/2020年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)全球(qiu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)大于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)需(xu)(xu)，期(qi)末(mo)庫(ku)存小幅增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)100萬(wan)(wan)包(bao)(bao)(每包(bao)(bao)170公斤(jin))。全球(qiu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.8%，許(xu)多國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家的(de)(de)(de)單產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)均有(you)所反(fan)彈，而(er)且種植面(mian)積也(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)。全球(qiu)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)將(jiang)繼續(xu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，但(dan)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)略(lve)低(di)于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)均值。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)將(jiang)逐漸擴(kuo)大棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)進口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)。2019/2020年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)到2250萬(wan)(wan)包(bao)(bao)，原(yuan)因是實播面(mian)積增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)而(er)棄(qi)收率大幅下(xia)降。美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內用棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)略(lve)高于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)本年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)，出口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，但(dan)期(qi)末(mo)庫(ku)存上升。全球(qiu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)方面(mian)，2019/2020年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)，全球(qiu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)達1.265億(yi)包(bao)(bao)，同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.9%，為(wei)(wei)(wei)歷史第二高，僅(jin)比(bi)(bi)2011/2012年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)的(de)(de)(de)1.272億(yi)包(bao)(bao)少0.6%。棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)收獲面(mian)積預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4%，為(wei)(wei)(wei)3450萬(wan)(wan)公頃。在所有(you)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)幅度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)最大，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)超過(guo)400萬(wan)(wan)包(bao)(bao)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅22.3%，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)50萬(wan)(wan)包(bao)(bao)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅2%，達到2800萬(wan)(wan)包(bao)(bao)，新疆植棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)面(mian)積小幅增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，但(dan)被(bei)內地面(mian)積減(jian)少抵消(xiao)(xiao)一部分。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)的(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)因是新疆棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)單產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)回到歷史正常水平，且高產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)地區(qu)占全國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)面(mian)積的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重繼續(xu)擴(kuo)大。印度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei)2850萬(wan)(wan)包(bao)(bao)，巴西(xi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)60萬(wan)(wan)包(bao)(bao)，澳大利亞(ya)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)沒有(you)變化(hua)。全球(qiu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)方面(mian)，2019/2020年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)，全球(qiu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)繼續(xu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)1.5%，達到1.255億(yi)包(bao)(bao)。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)2%的(de)(de)(de)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)略(lve)高于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)全球(qiu)平均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)，用棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)4130萬(wan)(wan)包(bao)(bao)。全球(qiu)其他地區(qu)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)略(lve)低(di)于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)，東(dong)南(nan)亞(ya)的(de)(de)(de)情況不太一致，越南(nan)的(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)高于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)平均值，但(dan)印尼和(he)泰國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)偏(pian)低(di)或者停滯(zhi)，孟加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)拉(la)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)以(yi)外(wai)(wai)的(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)低(di)于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)平均值，僅(jin)孟加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)拉(la)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)繼續(xu)高于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)平均值。此(ci)(ci)外(wai)(wai)，2019/2020年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)和(he)化(hua)纖的(de)(de)(de)價格比(bi)(bi)將(jiang)繼續(xu)保持穩定也(ye)(ye)有(you)利于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)。棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)進口(kou)(kou)方面(mian)，2019/2020年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)全球(qiu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)進口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei)4500萬(wan)(wan)包(bao)(bao)，同比(bi)(bi)小幅增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)、越南(nan)和(he)孟加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)拉(la)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)進口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)都預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)。由于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)以(yi)外(wai)(wai)供(gong)應增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，庫(ku)存也(ye)(ye)會隨之上升。美(mei)(mei)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)方面(mian)，2019/2020年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)美(mei)(mei)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)種植面(mian)積為(wei)(wei)(wei)1430萬(wan)(wan)英畝(mu)，同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)15萬(wan)(wan)英畝(mu)，為(wei)(wei)(wei)2011/2012年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)以(yi)來(lai)(lai)最高水平。美(mei)(mei)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)棄(qi)收率為(wei)(wei)(wei)9%，收獲面(mian)積預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei)1290萬(wan)(wan)英畝(mu)。據此(ci)(ci)推算，2019/2020年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)美(mei)(mei)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)2250萬(wan)(wan)包(bao)(bao)。2019/2020年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)，美(mei)(mei)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)出口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei)1700萬(wan)(wan)包(bao)(bao)，原(yuan)因是美(mei)(mei)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)和(he)全球(qiu)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)。因此(ci)(ci)縱觀全局2019/2020年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)價格將(jiang)承(cheng)受壓力。（來(lai)(lai)源：中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)紡織報）

• 分類整理：新聞資訊
• 作家：河南至誠紡織技術服務有限公司
• 起源：kstoudi.com
• 發布新聞日期：2019-03-30
• 訪問量：0